Every time people begin to feel that the peace process might at last be starting to go somewhere it seems that something happens that throws everything into confusion and raises fears that it could all slip back to a full-scale outbreak of violence again. I am sure there are quite a few people who will have come to the conclusion that this problem will never be solved and that like a brush fire , will continue burning until there is nothing left to burn.
What the violence shows(irrespective of which side it comes from ) is how dangerous the situation is without a proper political settlement, how small groups determined to use violence can set the agenda in a society that is very strongly polarised .This fact must be well known to the parties and so a reasonable question to ask is :-
"Why is it taking so long to get to even discussing the fundamental issues in the talks?"
There are possibly several answers.
First of all, and there is some evidence for this, some of the parties are very unwilling to abandon old dogmas and ideals and to fundamentally compromise traditional beliefs. As pure ideals , Nationalism and Unionism are totally irreconcilable and it will be impossible to forge an agreement between them unless BOTH traditions adopt the principle of consent - that any political settlement must have the support of a majority of the people in BOTH of the main communities.
It is a very difficult problem to solve for many reasons , not least being the different ways nationalists and unionists view the N. Ireland state. Unionists would see the state as an expression of the democratic will of the majority there and regard its coming into being as a fact of history, much as many of the states in the world were born out of a violent history. Nationalists on the other hand would view the northern state as being born out of the very antithesis of democracy - through the threat of total war on the part of the British Government and the rejection of the expressed democratic wish of the Irish people(via the ballot box) for home rule by the then unionist minority in Ireland. Before people can reach a solution perhaps both sides need to fully understand the other side's point of view. Possibly an agreement will not be worked out until the parties do move to accepting consent as described above.
It is clear that there are minorities on both sides who do not want this present initiative to succeed.A much bigger problem exists if it is the case that some of the main parties do not want the talks to succeed. I personally do not believe that this is the case. However it will be very difficult in particular for any unionist leader to sit down in comprehensive negotiations as if only a superficial view is taken it will seem that unionists will be giving up more than nationalists. Unionists will have to compromise on an actually existing situation (if an agreement is to be reached) whereas nationalists will have to compromise on ideals and viewpoint. In an unstable situation a minority who do not wish to compromise at all will try to whip up fears in the unionist community about any leader who tries to work out a deal involving compromise, even if the intention is to work out a settlement which will have the result of protecting the identity and aspirations of both communities and which will produce a system in which the people of both communities can live side by side with the suspicion, mistrust and fear of the past and present gone.
The coming talks (assuming they will eventually get down to fundamentals) will be a very strong test of character for the leaders of unionism. Not only will they have to negotiate a deal which will protect the identity of the unionist people but their humanity will also be tested since what will be needed will be an agreement which also protects the identity of the nationalist people. At the same time they will have to quell the fears and suspicions of their own people about such a deal and fend off attacks from those on their own side who will find it easier to be critical than constructive. For these it will be easier to be a stone than to be a man (or woman). At this present stage It often seems that unionists do not see the need to reach agreement, do not accept that N.Ireland is a disputed territory, do not accept that there are two views of this situation and that a reconciliation is needed which takes account of BOTH of these views. Perhaps the first step for unionists is to accept that they are not the only people who have to be taken in to consideration in N.Ireland and , even though they are the majority in N.Ireland, "Majority Rule" cannot be the governing principle in N.Ireland because of the way this principle was flouted in the past.Perhaps another thing that unionists have to face up to is that it is not primarily with the Republic of Ireland that they need to reach agreement , but with the catholic population within N.Ireland.
Republicans will also have to accept compromise. They will have to accept that a United Ireland should not come into being until it becomes acceptable to a majority of the people in BOTH communities. It is probable that many of the people in the unionist community are very sceptical of Sinn Fein and the IRA , believing that the they will go back to violence unless the outcome is one that makes a united Ireland inevitable, regardless of the wishes of the people in the protestant community. If this is presently the case then this is wrong and republicans will have to make the same shift to adopting the principle of consent outlined above as unionists. Perhaps a similar criticism could be leveled at republicans - that they also do not see N.Ireland as a disputed territory , do not accept that there are two views of the situation and that these two views have to be reconciled and that the wishes of the protestant people in N.Ireland also have to be taken into consideration ( rather than the wishes of the people of Ireland as a whole).
Maybe it is time the two Governments faced up to the possibility that the parties in N.Ireland might never reach agreement , being too entrenched in the status quo and/or old ideologies.This being the case there are two things they can do:-
(1)to go over the heads of the parties directly to the people of N.Ireland and start a really intense publicity campaign with a theme along the lines that neither of the two extreme possibilities ( a united Ireland or N.Ireland fully integrated within the United Kingdom) is a viable option and that what is needed is a settlement which acknowledges and protects BOTH traditions and prevents either of the two extreme possibilities from coming in to existence unless it becomes acceptable to a majority in both of the main communities there. If the majority of the people in N.Ireland are more reasonable than the politicians then such an equitable settlement should be acceptable to them, provided it is properly thought out, explained and will be seen to be implemented in such a way that BOTH communities will be left equally free and that neither will be "sold " totally into one of the extremes without their consent. If the majority of the people are NOT more reasonable then no matter what might be hammered out at the talks it will not be accepted in a referendum.
(2) Once the two Governments have thought out their settlement which treats both of the main traditions equally and guarantees to protect both traditions equally and explained it properly in an intense advertising campaign they should go to the people in a referendum and put it to the vote. If the ordinary people of N.Ireland are so polarised that they will not accept compromise then the two Governments will have no choice but to impose a joint settlement with the same guarantees for both traditions. Most of the people in N.Ireland probably would accept compromise if their tradition was equally protected and if this situation was arrived at most would probably wish for peace to come and there hopefully would not be the same support for paramilitaries as at present. Possibly even the paramilitaries would accept such an equitable settlement if it was clear that N.Ireland could neither be absorbed into a United Ireland or totally integrated within the United Kingdom without the agreement of BOTH of the main communities there.
Probably neither of the two Governments likes the idea of trying to impose a solution but they way the situation on the ground seems sometimes to be shaping up they might have no option. Getting all the parties around the discussion table in N.Ireland may be a case of "You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make him drink." Outsiders, if they follow the N.Ireland situation closely might have often asked themselves:- "Where is REASON and COMMON-SENSE in this whole process? What is preventing so many of the people on both sides from seeing that there are TWO sides to this situation?"
It might be unfair to compare some of the politicians in N.Ireland (on both sides) to horses - they are 100% pure thoroughbred stubborn mules who might never listen to reason. If these politicians on both sides who have no time for reason are in the majority the two Governments will have no choice but to try to put together and impose some kind of joint settlement.
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