Where does the peace process go from here?

In this document I am going to stick my neck out and express some opinions of my own regarding how I see the intentions and opinions of the majority of Nationalist Ireland with regard to the present peace process and how I see the intentions of the IRA and Sinn Fein(based on statements made by members of Sinn Fein over the past several months).

In an earlier document I stated that one of the aims of Cothrom would be to drag some of the things that are below the surface (such as people's fears and suspicions) out into the light of day.That is something I will try to do with Nationalist fears and suspicions in this present document.Any feedback telling me how right/wrong I am is welcome.
( I would also be glad to hear from anyone in the protestant community who has anything to say about the fears and suspicions of the people there regarding the present peace process).


a)I believe the great majority of the Nationalist community,North and South, want the IRA to end its violence and to renew its cease-fire.

b)This great majority also believes that the Official Unionist party and the British Government are stalling ,not just because they are suspicious of IRA intentions (which is understandable to a certain extent) but because a)the UUP is trying to avoid at all costs having to enter meaningful talks(because they just want everything their own way as before and b)the British Government is "in hock" to the Ulster Unionist Party and/or they also wish to avoid proper negotiations for fear it will eventually mean a diminution of Sovereignty over N.Ireland.

c)The IRA and Sinn Fein are serious about reaching a proper negotiated settlement and would accept such a settlement even if it fell short of a United Ireland , provided it was properly negotiated and it had the support of a majority of Nationalists.

d)At best the majority of Nationalist Ireland is very uncertain as to what Unionist and British intentions are, at worst it is convinced that Unionists and the British Government have no intention of every sitting down to proper across-the-board negotiations about the future of Northern Ireland.

e)The majority of Nationalist Ireland holds the British Government and the Ulster Unionist Party more responsible for this present impasse in the peace process,both for their in-activity during the IRA cessation itself and because of the fact that whenever the IRA seem to come close to reinstating its cease-fire they seem to invent new pre-conditions.

f)My own impression is that it is the aim of the British Government and the UUP to try to fragment the Nationalist camp in general and to try to cause Sinn Fein and the IRA in particular to wither away so that eventually they can move in and impose whatever solution they wish.(Of course ,this may not be their intention, merely how there actions appear on the surface .I have no insight into the thinking of the Unionist community , the UUP or the British Government so any feedback on this would be appreciated).

g)If this indeed is their aim it is a very dangerous course.Someone expressed the opinion to me recently that around 1916 most people in Ireland were not that politically minded, most being just interested in getting on with the day-to-day struggle of life and that it was primarily British military actions which aroused them.It would be my own fear that if the British Government has not learned that lesson of history that their delaying and stalling tactics and their attempt to impose a military solution on what is essentially a political problem will, far from weakening the IRA, actually strengthen it , by driving people who had believed in the possibility of a just political settlement through peaceful means into their arms and increasing public support for armed struggle for the same reason.

h)If it is the case that all parties are serious about reaching a negotiated settlement it will be a double tragedy if the main reason that the talks break irrevocably down and full-scale violence starts up again is that the parties have failed to communicate properly to each other.

i)If all the parties are indeed serious about reaching a genuine widely accepted political settlement what IS necessary to break down the mistrust and communicate this desire for a genuine peaceful settlement ?

k)In my own opinion what is needed in the coming year is a greater commitment to honesty on all sides.Everyone has to realise that treating politics like a chess game or a poker game is just too dangerous in Northern Ireland(however satisfying it is to the players).Everyone at the start of this new Year should start it off with the intention of doing as much as he or she can to promote a genuine just peace. It can be done.

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Note: All pf these Cothrom pages that relate to Northern Ireland were originally created at the end of the '90's/early 00's.