Many people are hopeful that the change of government in London will open a door of opportunity for the peace process and also that the fact that Sinn Fein now has 2 MPs and a strong electoral mandate will convince the IRA to call a new cease-fire. Maybe.
If a door has been opened then the peace process will have to PUSHED through it, like some lumbering wagon that only moves if people actually get behind it and put their shoulders to the wheels. Peace will not happen, it will have to be MADE.
This means that everyone should get behind this process now and PUSH. Those who do nothing and sit on the sidelines may be guilty of trying to kill the process by omission - the wagon will not move if only one or two groups are behind the wheels and everyone else is looking on, either waiting to see what will happen or even hoping that the efforts of those trying to push the wagon will fail. Even worse is if there are people/groups trying to obstruct the progress of "the wagon" at every turn and eventually hoping to force the door of opportunity closed again.
It will be of no use if Sinn Fein and the IRA expect the new British Government to make all the moves and likewise if the British Government and the Unionist parties expect Sinn Fein and the IRA to make all the moves.
Perhaps now is a good moment for all individuals and parties to stop for a moment and examine their beliefs and differentiate between their long-term aims and what is acceptable NOW as an interim settlement.What is needed now is a settlement which a majority of the people in BOTH of the main communities can live with and in which Republicans can work PEACEFULLY towards convincing a majority of the protestant community to accept a United Ireland and Unionists can work PEACEFULLY towards convincing a majority of the catholic community to accept the Union with Britain.(This is for the future - what is immediately necessary is to find a settlement that is acceptable to a majority in both communities NOW.) Once individuals and organisations have decided to work towards finding such a settlement they need to plan out the best way for them to advance the process to this stage.
Everyone "putting their shoulder to the wheel" means ALL the parties to the conflict need to contribute something.Some contributions are essential and the process will probably fail without these contributions.So what do the various parties need to contribute to help the process as much as possible?
When the IRA called its first cease-fire, it and Sinn Fein must have been aware that a credible IRA cease-fire was ONE of the necessities for the process to succeed.An IRA cease-fire alone is not enough to ensure the success of any peace process - it must be a credible cessation and it must be paralleled by moves from the other parties. Regardless of why the first IRA cease-fire broke down (It was never credible/ justifiable suspicions about IRA intentions became a self-fulfilling prophecy/ other parties were not interested in getting into proper talks - people can take their pick) a new IRA cease-fire is still ONE of the necessities.Furthermore, it must be credible and to this end I believe that, in addition to calling a cease-fire, the IRA should state that they will accept any properly negotiated settlement which would have the support of a majority of the people in BOTH communities in N.Ireland ( or possibly state that they will accept any properly negotiated settlement which would have the support of a majority of the people of Ireland, North and South).
Another necessity is for genuine talks involving ALL the parties to start.This will need an acceptance by the British Government that any proper settlement in N.Ireland MUST have the support of a majority in BOTH of the main communities in N.Ireland( as was hinted at recently in a statement by Tony Blair).
Any process would also disintegrate unless Loyalist paramilitaries change their stance from one where they say they will refrain from violence unless there is tampering with the Union with Britain to one where they also state that they will accept any properly negotiated settlement which has the support of a majority of the people in BOTH of the main communities(and thus ,by implication, the support of a majority of the people in the protestant community).
The Unionist political parties could either greatly help the process along or greatly hinder it, even to the extent of obstructing it to the point where it falls apart. The contribution the Unionist parties need to make ( which is a contribution also needed from all the other main parties) is to accept that any settlement MUST have the support of a majority of the people in BOTH of the main Communities.
How can two such conflicting ideologies (Republicanism and Unionism) ever hope to arrive at an agreement? The answer is that they can never hope to arrive at an acceptable agreement unless the people who advocate these beliefs come to see their shortcomings in terms of the denial of freedom and the oppression that is inherent in BOTH of them. The adherents of BOTH republicanism and Unionism need first of all to face up to the fact that BOTH an enforced union with Britain and an enforced united Ireland involve large-scale denial of freedom, oppression and destruction of identity. The second thing the adherents of these ideologies need to accept is that their long-term aims (whether a United Ireland or final union with Britain) will need the acceptance of a majority of the people in BOTH of the main communities in N.Ireland.
An opportunity may be here, but EVERYONE needs to grasp it. Everyone needs to come off the fence and stop blaming everyone else for what happened the last time.This opportunity is here NOW and it needs as many shoulders as possible to push the lumbering wagon of the peace process through the door.
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Note: All pf these Cothrom pages that relate to Northern Ireland were originally created at the end of the '90's/early 00's.
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