Is mistrust really the problem at this point? (6th - oct - 1999)

Perhaps the most important thing that both Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionist Party need to do at this point is to honestly determine whether the other party is genuinely determined to make the GFA work, if this present difficulty can be resolved.

If a way forward can be found will the UUP then work to implement the rest of the Agreement in its entirety, including those aspects which go against its fundamental beliefs like the Cross-Border bodies or is it still one of its aim to avoid this compromise and will they then find some other reason/excuse to avoid implementing the GFA?

Similarly, if a way forward can be found will the IRA then engage in that part of the GFA which calls for decommissioning or will they still refuse to decommission and try to find some other way out of this?

Once again it is possible well worthwhile to spell out the suspicions both nationalists and unionists might still have.

A large section of the unionist population probably still believes that the IRA will only go along with the peace process so long as it is weakening the link with Britain and advancing their ultimate aim of a United Ireland, will not ultimately settle for anything less and will restart the campaign if it seems that the GFA will lead to a settlement which will accept a link with Britain until the majority wish otherwise.More subtly there is probably the belief that even if the IRA will accept a settlement which does maintain this link with Britain that they will use the unspoken threat of violence to weaken this link as much as possible and to generally exert pressure to weaken the unionist content of various aspects of the settlement as much as possible. Assuming that unionists are genuine about implementing the GFA, this would explain in part the importance decommissioning has for them.

Likewise, a large section of the nationalist population probably still believes that unionists are not genuine about implementing the GFA, that their aim is to delay the process as much as possible so that it will wither without implementation, that any violence can be contained by the security forces and that eventually the political situation will settle down into one which has no real nationalist content/be purely internal within the UK. Even if they accept that unionists will implement some form of the agreement they probably suspect that unionists will not act in the spirit of genuine compromise and will try to make the final form of any settlement a pale shadow of what was probably originally envisioned - a settlement which was a genuine compromise which did respect and protect BOTH traditions. Assuming that republicans are genuine about implementing the GFA, this would partly explain the reluctance of republicans to decommission before they see evidence of a trend towards genuine political change.

Dealing with these suspicions should be close to the top for both Sinn Fein and the UUP. First of all they need to be aware of the reasons for possible suspicion amongst members of the other party. Secondly they should try to determine if the other party is genuine about real compromise and implementing the GFA in a way which will probably reflect and protect both traditions. Thirdly, they need to accept the necessity for progress on BOTH the political- and decommissioning/de-militarisation fronts SIMULTANEOUSLY.

Politics is often a poker game, bluff and double-bluff, keeping one's cards close and not revealing one's hand. Presently maybe it is a time for a more direct, blunt and honest approach, at least in private discussions between the parties. Politicians in both parties should refrain from playing to the gallery while this important phase of discussion is going on. They should be prepared to ask blunt questions about the other party's intentions and, if it can be seen that the other party is prepared to give straight honest answers, to give straight honest answers in return.

The present difficulty can be overcome with understanding, honesty, a committment to make the GFA work as it should and a genuine willingness to compromise if it is reciprocated.

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