Everyone knows what the IRA needs to do but what does everyone else need to do?

There are two very big problems at this current stage of the peace process:-

a)There is the need for the IRA to give some form of credible assurance that if a reasonable settlement can be worked out which has the support of a majority of the people in the two main communities in N.Ireland that they(the IRA)will not reject it and go back to violence if it happens to fall short of a United Ireland;
b)There is the need for the Unionist parties and the British Government to give some form of credible assurance that they genuinely accept the need to find a political settlement that would have the support of a majority of the people in BOTH of the main traditions.


BOTH of these concerns need to be addressed as it is likely that only when the IRA are convinced that the British Government and the Unionist parties are serious about proper negotiations will they reinstitute a proper cessation of violence and , likewise, only when the British Government and the Unionist parties are convinced that the IRA will accept a settlement that has the support of a majority in both of the main communities in N.Ireland, even if it falls short of a United Ireland ,will they consider getting into serious talks.

( 1 )Recent violence has highlighted how dangerous the present unstable political situation in Northern Ireland is and how essential a credible cessation of violence by the IRA is to the further development of the current peace process.However,that is not the only requirement. Building this present peace process will be like putting together a jig-saw puzzle - each of the parties is in possession of a piece of the puzzle which must be put into the centre of the table with all the other pieces before all the pieces can be locked together into something lasting and stable.

( 2 )Everyone knows what the IRA's piece of the puzzle is - a credible cessation to the violence. On the other hand , many of the parties seem to be playing a game of trying to force the IRA to throw its piece of the puzzle onto the table while keeping their own piece tightly clenched in their fists.

(3)A couple of questions need to be answered here :-
a)What would constitute a credible cessation of violence by the IRA(and indeed the Loyalist paramilitaries, given that they have stated that their ceasefire will hold only as long as the union with Britain is not under threat)?
b)What are the pieces of the jig-saw that all the other parties need to throw onto the table along with credible cessations of violence by both Loyalist- and Republican paramilitaries?

( 4 ) Being realistic, neither Loyalist- nor Republican paramilitaries are going to call a "blank cheque"end to violence and give a prior acceptance to whatever oppression might be imposed on their communities. Freedom is important to the people in both of the two main communities in N.Ireland and it cannot be expected that a free people will endure being caged-up indefinitely without eventually trying to break down the bars of their cage.

(5)What is needed is for both sets of paramilitaries to call cesstions which will give the parties time to work out an acceptable political settlement and to make these cessations have such a form that they build confidence in both communities that both sets of paramilitaries will abide by any solution found which has widespread acceptance in both of the main communities.

(6)My own opinion is that the IRA should call a cessation and state that they will not oppose militarily any settlement which has the support of a majority of Catholics in Northern Ireland and likewise the Loyalist paramilitaries should amend their ceasefire statement to state that they will not oppose militarily any political settlement which has the support of a majority of protestants in N.Ireland.

(7)Before coming to the question of what the other pieces of the jig-saw might be perhaps it is first necessary to answer a prior question- "Why should anybody have to match such cessations of violence with anything? Is not paramilitary violence just totally wrong and should just stop?" The answer to this is that ALL violence is wrong and since N.Ireland grew out of violence and terrorism even the passage of 75+ years and the presence of the troops of a democratically elected government does not blunt the fact that for the majority of the people in one of the two main communities the presence of these troops is an on-going act of violence.In short , it is not possible to be both honest and adopt a totally high moralistic condemnatory tone about paramilitary violence on either side.Paramilitary violence on both sides has grown out of the absence of a proper stable political settlement acceptable to a majority in both communities and out of the failure of politicians on all sides to produce such a settlement.

( 8 )Finally,there is the question -"What are the other pieces of the jig-saw?"The answer to this is quite easy but probably quite difficult for some to swallow:- namely to admit that this present situation does not constitute true democracy except in some very shallow sense of the word and that what is necessary is to stop stalling and to effectively to go back to the table and re-negotiate all of N.Ireland's internal- and external relationships so that they are acceptable to a majority in both communities.

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