All sides need to look for a way to move the peace process forward

(1)The recent upsurge in IRA activity, if it is more than the IRA showing that it is not a spent force and rather a rolling return to full-scale violence, will inevitably drag the present situation of semi-peace(where there is still hope that a peaceful political settlement that would be acceptable to a majority of the people in the two main communities can be found) down to a situation where the majority of people in both communities will cease to believe that a peaceful political settlement is possible, that armed action is the only way for each of the communities to attain or preserve freedom and the violence will return in an even more vicious form.



(2)Everyone is pointing the finger at everyone else for the gradual slide back towards violence.None of the main parties are blameless, although each has made some contribution towards moving to a peaceful political settlement that would be acceptable to a majority in BOTH of the two main traditions in Northern Ireland.

a1)The IRA and Sinn Fein lay the blame totally at the door of the British Government and the Unionist parties but they themselves have not gone far enough to assure the protestant population of N.Ireland that if their political representatives did indeed engage in serious talks and negotiations that covered all the important constitutional and political matters and did reach an agreement which did have the support of a majority of catholics and a majority of protestants that the IRA would not reject it if it fell short of a United Ireland.

a2)IRA and Sinn Fein statements do talk of the need for a "negotiated settlement " but also , in a recent statement, the IRA reaffirmed their "steadfast commitment to their republican objectives" and that their "primary objective remains the re-unification of our country".

a3)My own "gut-feeling"is that the IRA would not oppose violently any properly negotiated settlement that had the support of a majority of catholics in N.Ireland. However the statements of the IRA and Sinn Fein are ambiguous and could quite reasonably be interpreted by the protestant population as meaning that all the IRA was prepared to negotiate was how the transition to a United Ireland could take place.

a4)To sum up:- One of the steps necessary to move the peace process forward is for the IRA and Sinn Fein to clarify their intentions by stating that while their final objective remained a re-united Ireland,that they would pursue this aim by peaceful political means if a comprehensive negotiated settlement could be found which did have the support of a majority in BOTH of the main traditions, even if this settlement fell short of a United Ireland(if that indeed is their position).


b1)The British Government and the Unionist parties have laid the blame totally at the door of Sinn Fein and the IRA but they themselves have not done enough to assure the catholic population of N.Ireland that they accept the necessity for any political settlement to have the support of a majority of the catholic population AS WELL as a majority of the protestant population.

b2)There have been some encouraging statements:- representatives of the British Government have stated that "There can be no internal settlement", some of the loyalist parties have talked of the need for "reasonable compromise" but unfortunately there have not been enough such statements and ,as in the case of the statements of the IRA and Sinn Fein , those that have been made are ambiguous.

b3)The other step necessary to move the peace process forward is for the British Government and the Unionist parties to make it clear to the nationalist population that while they supported the Union between Britain and N.Ireland that they accept that any political settlement must have the support of BOTH a majority of protestants AND a majority of catholics (if indeed that is their position).



(3)It is unlikely that either side is going to make such a move uni-laterally so now, as much as at any other time there is the need for fair mediators who have contacts in both camps to try to get both camps to move away from their publically stated positions towards accepting publically that any settlement must have the acceptance of BOTH a majority of protestants AND a majority of catholics .



(4)Finally an appeal to both camps:-

a1)There are many people(in Ireland, Britain, America and elsewhere )who support the need for political/constitutional change in N.Ireland to a situation which must have the support of BOTH of the main traditions.

a2)In particular those who sympathize with the catholic/nationalist community are powerless to exert any pressure for change to a more equal situation while there is no proper negotiations going on.

a3)There will not be proper negotiations until there is an IRA cessation.The best way forward is for the IRA to instate a credible cessation so that all this goodwill can be harnessed to promote a just peaceful settlement.

a4)The IRA should also realise that continued violence at a time when people expect that the situation can be resolved by peaceful political dialogue is only damaging the support base for the nationalist cause - indeed it may be the case that all the Unionist parties and the British Government have to do is to wait long enough for IRA violence to totally fragment support for the nationalist cause and they could then impose whatever solution they wanted, if that was their aim.

a5)Sinn Fein and the IRA may not accept that the ball is in their court but at the very least it is hanging over the net. The IRA should call a cessation AND state they would accept ANY negotiated outcome if it had the support of a majority of the catholic population of N.Ireland(or, if they prefer to think in terms of a 32-county Ireland, the support of a majority of the population of Ireland, as in all likelihood the population of Nationalist Ireland as a whole would reflect the wishes of that part of the population in N.Ireland).Such a cessation would firmly place the ball back in the British- and Unionist court.


b1)The Unionist parties have a reputation for stubbornness and intransigence in their opposition to the slightest attempt to try to get the political/constitutional nature of N.Ireland to reflect more equally the two main traditions there.

b2)The greatest step they could take to redress this impression and win greater international support for their position is to publically state their acceptance of the need for a political settlement which would have the support of a majority of BOTH of the main communities there.

b3)Similarly , the greatest move the British Government could make to redress all the wrongs Britain has committed in Ireland over the centuries and to dispel the impression that its imperial ambitions and its desire to keep people in other parts of the world down are dead , is to likewise publically state the need for a political settlement that has the support of a majority of BOTH of the main communities there.


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